This blog used to be about debt. Now it's about a few more things. But really, it all comes back to debt. Trust me.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The World According To Judis

John Judis has this over at TNR

Historically, there are three circumstances in which Democrats have been able to win over these ["small town"] voters:

The Unacceptable Republican: Republicans have run candidates with whom white working class voters have not been able to identity--either because of their backgrounds, beliefs, or actions...

The Acceptable Democrat: The Democrats have sometimes run candidates in these states who are sufficiently moderate on guns, abortion, and religion to neutralize the Republican appeal on these issues...

The Empathetic Democrat: The Democrats have run a candidate who can connect with these voters in spite of his or her beliefs on abortion and guns. Pollsters try to get at this by asking voters whether a candidate "cares about people like me..."

Apparently, Obama is none of these.

Well, glad that's all cleared up! We don't even have to wait for election results. It's a good thing John created this rigid view of the world to remedy all our electoral uncertainty. Or perhaps amplify to it.

2 points here:

1. I don't want to fuel the Obamamania too much, but clearly he is a paradigm shifter, game changer, new phenomenon -- whatever you want to call it. The campaign has not followed any traditional pattern up to now.

2. I have not read a single clear argument against this possibility: the white working class voters who are democratic and happened to vote for Hillary in the primary will clearly switch to Obama in the general, unless McCain is the beneficiary of miracles in Iraq or "mavericks" himself into being a socialist in the face of economic disaster. Anyone?

Yet the vast media prediction engine still vrooms, doing us all a nagging disservice.

Maybe that will all change this year. As Andrew Sullivan has been saying for quite a while, we will see.


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